I have no idea how while Trump is a) ripping out the underpinnings of constitutional law which, in turn, is all that holds up all other laws (including transactional) in the US AND b) ripping apart the post war Western defense alliance leaving Europe and Australia completely exposed and vulnerable AND c) going to impose global reciprocal tariffs, which are going to kill trade and plunge the country and the world into the greatest economic depression (coincidentally) since the 1930’s, how the market isn’t down 75% - 90% by this point. Hopes & Dreams? Hallucinogens? Heroin?
What power on earth is allowing Hedge Funds, Banks and Small Investors the justification to keep betting on an underlying business system which is literally being pulled apart at the seams with no real hope of being functional shortly. How is this happening. It’s like I’m taking crazy pills every day. The market should look at what Trump’s already done (much less what he still promises to do) and say, whoop that’s us, we’re audi, this is insane, we can’t trade our value as a corporation any longer, we don’t know where supplies, labor, administration, distribution, sales, or any law governing any of it stands, we have to pull all our monies out, and put them someplace safe like our pockets.
What is happening to keep the market propped up, when literally everything, everywhere that it needs for stability in projected earnings is being hollowed out beneath it?
edit 2/20 : lol edit 2/21: lol edit 3/3: lol
Because not enough people are selling.
If people / companies don’t believe the stocks will lose value they won’t sell. If they don’t sell they won’t lose value.
Because of the cuts. It’ll be a year or so of smooth sailing… then, as the chickens come home to roost: nosedive.
deleted by creator
What you’re experiencing isn’t hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is more like when a loaf of bread is $1 today, $2 a month after and $10-100 by the end of the year. Grown up in country during hyperinflation.
i still kind of regret not getting one of those hundred trillion dollar bills for 40 cents
Lol no, for hyper INFLATION, your prices need to change dramatically by the minute
As others have said, the stock market has little to do with reality. It’s focused on money and business reports. As long as companies are showing profits, the stock market literally doesn’t care.
Something only hits it when businesses hit it. Look at today’s market. Walmart posted bad futures and the whole market recoiled (only a bit but still).
There’s also just the denial phase. Lots of people, at lots of levels, are dependent on the stock market for their own finances. Literally everyone with a 401k has an interest in the market doing well. Saying “welp, we’re fucked” is just not something that anyone wants to put towards wall street. It’s why we have market “crashes”, because people hold out until the water covers the bow of the sinking shop then they freak out and bail out at the last second.
There’s also just the denial phase.
As evidenced in The Big Short when it was very clear to banks and regulators that the whole mortgage shell game was falling apart and they all refused to act on it.
See, now I have had a few things pegged as being in the denial phase for a while. I’m in Australia, so the housing market I have had pegged to collapse, also I figured we would be heading into a recession coming on 3 years ago and changed businesses to “weather the upcoming recession”
Now while things have cooled off since then, and I still think both elements are overcooked, I obviously moved way to soon.
So my question is, how do you time the denial phase? The housing market issue has been going on for about 30 years from what I can tell (though it got more reasonable for half a minute a bit over a decade ago and then went stupid again).
In my lifetime, and I’m 40 now, I haven’t seen a proper major correction where bad decisions and greed was punished. I should have been “taking stupid risks” the entire time and I would have been just fine.
I mean that’s part of the thing right? “Who dares wins” is a great mantra until you lose. Nobody can predict the future so a lot of times the greed carries out until it’s literally irreversible. That’s why it’s so important to have people on the other end defending from the greed, from the people that will hoard and take until they die on their pile of gold.
At least for the US there is always a feeling of doom and worry and “it’s going to pop” but until it actually does, the greed will continue to take. That’s part of the system for better or worse. It can’t be stopped, but defending the people from the repercussions of that greed is what we have to do.
There’s always someone that will try to bring too much on the lifeboat. Rules are needed to stop them from sinking the whole ship.
I don’t have an answer to any of your questions and I don’t think many others will either. It seems like one of those things that you look back at with the clarity of hindsight in order to map things out.
If you believe all kinds of capitalist ideology and pseudo-science, then it might seem strange.
But in reality fascism is great for capital. Also the fed prints hella money to prop it all up.
What power on earth is allowing Hedge Funds, Banks and Small Investors the justification to keep betting on an underlying business system which is literally being pulled apart at the seams …
When you’re a hammer, everything is a nail. That’s all they know how to do, and they still have enough capital to keep doing it.
There are insane mistakes being made multiple times a day now. At some point, the high stakes game of Don’t Break the Ice will come to a sudden end. Putting the cubes back in the game board would require an expenditure of capital. Capitalists spend money to buy more money. The only time they spend money to avoid losing money is when they’ve lost money for a very specific reason multiple times, and maybe not even then.
The visual helped.
There is a economic name for it called a Minsky moment. While I think most of economics is a joke this is one of the only valuable things from the field of economics.
I think economy, in the sense of money as a concept, is an illusion. We all just agree that money is worth something. When our belief in the American Dollar fails, so would follow any stocks tied up in businesses that rely upon it. Those trillions and tax cuts that Musk has? Worthless.
shrug
That is my hypothesis, anyways. My guess is that we are into a Weimer Germany sort of scenario. I have been converting my money into Euros, with the assumption that America as we knew it is going to die horribly within years. Hopefully, my efforts are pragmatic, not paranoid. 😕
I have been converting my money into Euros, with the assumption that America as we knew it is going to die horribly within years. Hopefully, my efforts are pragmatic, not paranoid. 😕
Hopefully, your efforts are paranoid, not pragmatic.
(Not blaming you for how you’re coping/preparing, just not personally ready to give up on our country yet) The past is useful because history rhymes, but the future isn’t written in stone
More than fair. It would be nice to rub the back of my neck and feel embarrassed for overreacting. Here’s hoping your timeline is what happens.
How big are the odds that the billions (later corrected to millions) of saving (a single day of borrowing btw) they did are competent and not a fascist hyper capitalist dictatorship rising?
It’s almost like financial value is artificially assigned or something, and not, like, intrinsic.
yes financial value isn’t intrinsic, it’s created, but it’s created by group acclimation, a thing is worth what a) someone of a group of someones says it’s worth AND by b) a second group who is willing to pay what the first group has valued that thing at, for that thing. but it’s an understanding, which is based in observable, recordable, and prooveable metrics BASED equally on the intangible of trust in the underlying business system upon which it is offered. That second bit can’t exist in the current environment, when the Constitution and all law based on it, are becoming meaningless.
You kind of get it with your own answer but are refusing to see it.
Why hasn’t the market dropped yet with all the fuckery going on in DC? Because the impact of said fuckery has not occurred yet. Let this be a chance for some awareness of your own personal information bubble and possible over doom scrolling.
This is not saying this administration isn’t going to cause some terrible shit. It just hasn’t stuck yet. Nothing the administration has done has prevented Microsoft or Google or Netflix from collecting their subscription fees. The closest thing so far has been tariffs that came and went.
The closest thing so far has been tariffs that came and went.
For the record, they were only delayed for 30 days, not cancelled.
Also, Trump just announced some more today, so that’s fun.
You’re right that the actual brunt of the effects haven’t hit yet, though.
Why hasn’t the market dropped yet with all the fuckery going on in DC? Because the impact of said fuckery has not occurred yet.
This is s completely incorrect take on the stock market.
Rule #1 of the stock market is that none understands how it responds to inputs.
Rule #2 is that it attempts to factor in future expectations, so if you wait for something to happen, the impact is already accounted for in the price if the stock.
Market frenzy, people piling on when FOMO takes over, etc all make it impossible to have any level of certainty. So it’s a valid question to ask why all of the current fuckery has not translated into market chaos.
So it’s a valid question to ask why all of the current fuckery has not translated into market chaos.
My reply addresses this with your 2nd point. What I’m trying to say is that maybe the market did factor in the fuckery and has so far believed it to be a nothing burger.
Everyone could be wrong, of course, but so far that is what the markets indicates. So naturally the follow up questions should be, are the markets wrong? Or am I (OP) consuming too much media from my bubble which is overexaggerating the doom and gloom?
The people with the money are the ones running shit. Everything works until they say it doesn’t. Or until we all do.
To expand: the economy runs on many fuels. Progress, yes. But also blood.
The progress is also made of blood
Have we checked inside the billionaires to see what they are made of ?
I hear they’re full of candy, like a fat bloated piñata.
Then we should string them up in a tree and beat them with sticks,
… To get the candy.
Blood from crushed orphans is up 300% this year! 📈
Much stock value is artificial, but these companies still have infrastructure, brands and products.
these companies still have infrastructure, brands and products.
And you assume this has intrinsic value? Brands and products?
And you assume this has intrinsic value?
I assume they’re making a point about hard assets versus pure speculation, like comparing real estate to crypto coins.
If you woke up tomorrow and had full rights to the name Coca Cola™, would that not be of extreme value to you? Of course it doesn’t have the intrinsic value of a gold brick, but it’s still valuable and stock fluctuations won’t change that fact.
And these things are truly worth a fraction of their assigned value - and no value at all to those who aren’t interested in them. The plumbing inside Microsoft is worthless to me except to maybe make a bong, but it’s worth billions to the company that requires it.
The stock market is up because nothing has fundamentally changed. Tarrifs are only going to hurt the consumer.
The stock market is based on value extraction and as long as everyone keeps on working and consuming at reasonable level it will continue to hum along just fine.
Some markets and industries will be harmed by this the tarrifs but these are small fractions of the overall economy. There is also a ton of uncertainty since Trump has a tendency to pull back any measure that affects the market averages.
The pain will be felt by workers and consumers but people have to work and we cannot stop consuming so affected workers will ultimately shift to new places and consumption will shift to new products and the skim will continue.
Global markets aren’t going to get shaken up because the global market is incredibly resilient. Prices will quiver for a bit but in the long run they will simply route around us and new normals will emerge.
The only way things change is if the people cause it to change. Either accidentally or on purpose. But the change has to be sudden and swift because there are tons of levers built into the system to force us to participate.
Something like national strike might not be enough unless it can be sustained indefinitely and it’s not clear how that could occur. I suspect will take several events each gaining the momentum of the last and there is little chance of a first event for occurring.
The stock market is indicating it doesn’t think we have the fortitude and despite what we may want to be true, they know a lot about us and our patterns. Our predictability is to their profit, literally.
People don’t have to work. This is the assumption the entire house of cards is built on. Those at the top need you to work so they realistically don’t have to.
People have to work to live. They’re working to make money to buy food at the grocery, or at the other end of the spectrum, they’re working by hunting and gathering food.
I’m excluding people with enough wealth to buy their food indefinitely from this discussion. At global scale, not many people are in that category.
We’re not there yet. The problem is as we approach it, they just skim more so we will reach a point where we should barely need to work but won’t know it.
That skim is how the stock market keeps going up in ways that make no sense to the workers. They’ve figured out how to profit regardless of the struggles of the working class.
As it stands today, we could probably survive by working one day per week, likely less. The amount being skimmed is that insane.
Why should anything be crashing at this point? Everyone is still working, right? Value is still being extracted from workers, right? People are still buying things, aren’t they?
The stock market will only start crashing once the effects actually reach people’s spending/working behavior, which it didn’t yet.
that’s right people lost their homes, farms, businesses, and jumped off skycrappers in 29, before the market crashed, i must have forgotten
Dingus, they are saying it hasnt reached the tipping point yet. There will be a crash but the system has a lot of inertia that needs to grind to a slow screaching halt first before we start seeing the really big effects.
This is the correct answer.
Because this is the Second Business Plot, and this time it worked.
Huh, til
Thats a good comparison to the end result, but he skipped the “get support of the military” step.
He just freed a bunch of criminal paramilitaries, but when push comes to shove, I think they’ll be quickly eliminated by the actual military.
The same way Bitcoin keeps value; most of the supply never changes hand. In Bitcoin because the wallets are no longer accessible, in stock because the owners live comfortably on dividends alone.
I agree that bitcoin and stocks are both just wacky pyramid schemes but…
the wallets are no longer accessible
What wallets?
About
60-70%20-30% (edited, some googling returned a lot lower numbers than I remembered) of Bitcoin is estimated to be out of rotation. They reside in wallets that haven’t been accessed in at least 10 years.MostAbout one million of these belong to the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto, the main developer of Bitcoin. He disappeared some 15 years ago, and nobody knows their real name, or even if it’s one person or more.
The stock market will always be up and going up if people keep putting more money in it.
Stocks represent all assets that can be sold and traded publicly. Although US infrastructure is crumbling, all the shit is still there.
Times are hard but we still have obscene material wealth (for now, here is hoping climate change doesn’t reduce that too much). Ironically, stocks should have gone down in the pandemic cause of the productive capacity dropping but it didn’t cause a lot of cash was printed.
For stock prices to tumble down and crash, people need to take their money out of it. That’s only going to happen if there is another economy that people prefer to put their money in (like China).
So what is more likely to happen is we keep having stock prices go higher and higher, cause more and more money would be in circulation (so inflation). But our productive capacity could drop. So we could become much more poor, have little wealth all around, and go to the baker to buy 1 loaf of bread with $1000 price tag.
TLDR: when your economy represents basically “everything”, it won’t crash unless human civilization crashes.
The stock market is delaminated from the real market, and has been for a while.
How this has happened is not simple but a short version is that as the stock market has evolved it became a key place to put assets with a level of growth expectation. As time goes on the demand for a place for investment without effort (starting your own business vs investing in a businesses stock) keeps getting larger and the alternatives keep getting less desirable (bonds, GICs, etc.) causing a sort of investment feedback loop. There is X amount of money that needs to be invested each year lets say, and if every thing is crashing (waves at the general state of things) it means nothing is since pensions, people and firms still need to have that investment somewhere.
As long as there is still some expectation of return and faith in the current stock market you will have investment and as stocks (and therefor the market) are measured by the demand (the buy vs the sell) we have the current situation. If you want to see what happens when a stock market looses people’s faith and therefor investment look at China’s stock market crash https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%932016_Chinese_stock_market_turbulence
Don’t even ask the question
The answer is yes, it’s priced in.
Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That’s already been priced in.
You work at the drive thru for Mickey D’s and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don’t already know that?
The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born.
Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil’s expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc.
Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren’t thinking of.
You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth.
The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe).
So please, before you make a post on Lemmy asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don’t ask such a dumb fucking question again.
