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I think a bomb is more likely for a couple of reasons. Firstly the breakup occurred around the tail section … that doesn’t square with a guided missile which normally targets the nose or engines. Second a bomb is much easier to conceal than a missile. I think the smoke in the video was from the explosion itself.
All good points. Also, it’s hella cheaper, plus also avoids the risk of someone with a cellphone capturing your SAM launch on video.
The engines are at the back of this aircraft. Also in Russia, Russian air defence sites do not need to be concealed from Russian business jets. That said, I find either cause equally plausible.
