With evidence mounting on the failure to limit global warming to 1.5C, do you think global carbon emissions will be low enough by 2050 to at least avoid the most catastrophic climate change doomsday scenarios forecast by the turn of the century?
I am somewhat hopeful most developed countries will get there but I wonder if developing countries will have the ability and inclination to buy into it as well.
Dead.
Realistically, I think we will be dead by 2050.
I don’t think we’ll be dead, but I do think the world is gonna look pretty different. Like I don’t think humanity is gonna go extinct within my lifetime, but shit’s gonna get bad.
Although I suppose there’s decent odds that I as an individual will be dead by 2050 lol.
Like I don’t think humanity is gonna go extinct within my lifetime
Humanity can’t go extinct until you’re dead, so that does seem like a safe bet.
Negative, I am a meat popsicle.
NHI is found!
Quick, hide before the authorities get here!
Humanity wont go extinct, but it will definitely see a dieoff that will make the last 100 years of war and plague look small in comparison.
We’ll not meet the goal limit, climate will change, the poor will suffer all the consequences, the rich will be mildly inconvenienced. Habitats will be destroyed, species will go extinct, life will go on.
life will go on.
It’s the new normal
species will go extinct, life will go on
Bro did you just contradict yourself on the same sentence?
No, there are more than one species in the planet.
Species also went extinct when that rock killed the dinosaurs, life still went on. Took a few years to recover, but it went on.
Only question is, will humanity go exting before we pump too much CO2 into the atmosphere to end up like Venus.
Lives of the surviving species and life of the remaining people, I guess.
Pretty much. The outcome is simple. By 2050, the rich will start moving their houses north-er than they already do, south asia and europe will be considered pre-tropical. America will start hearing the words “desertification” but people on the south border will still vote against their interests.
By 2150 the rich, whose numbers will already be severely culled, will run out of North to run to.
By that time, Antartica will be the place to go.
So what you’re saying is that life, uh, finds a way?
On fire or making nice with fish
Prepare for more migrants. The people who dislike migrants are the ones who also deny climate change.
Actual government intervention is starting to show up, and technology has worked in our favour. Maybe we’ll do it. The biggest question is geopolitics, I think.
Of course, we might have hit a tipping point already, so net zero by 2050 will still lead to a very different Earth.
Nothing will be done, I wouldn’t sell my Shell shares yet.
No.
I expect the billionaires to be successful in their genocide of the poors via their engineered famine and seizure of private property. So very well.
I feel like you’re asking two questions.
Are we going to meet the 2050 climate goals, and can we limit global warming to 1.5C?
Imho, probably not, and definitely not.
Fossil fuel companies are still touting natural gas as having a role in addressing climate change goals, and we’re still consuming more fossil fuels. Hell nah are we limiting global warning to 1.5C.
As for meeting 2050 climate goals…lol. Same evidence. Our main current sources of information routinely mention wildfires, hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, etc, without contextualizing it. Why should I expect that to change? The current economic incentives seem to be opposed to meeting climate goals.
For example, Shell says they’re going to be net-zero by 2050. But that’s not a binding declaration on their part. If they can make more money digging up the arctic, then that’s what I expect them. It’s going to take someone with a heavy regulatory hand to tell them otherwise, then it’s going to take a not shitty court system to uphold that regulation.
Every article about weather should say “this event is made more likely due to climate change” and “this event will cost the taxpayer $X to repair” and “so far we have spent $Y total on climate related disaster relief”
Nope. Net-zero emissions by 2050 is a vague sham of a goal supported by the fossil fuel industry. Big oil actually plans to INCREASE fossil fuel production and use “planting trees” and “carbon capture” to justify expansion of resource consumption.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16072020/oil-gas-climate-pledges-bp-shell-exxon/
At this moment? I’d say we should make peace with the fact that there aren’t too many generations of humans ahead of us.
At one point or the other, we will have to accept the fact that saving humanity is not within our power - but wreaking vengeance on the elites that caused it is.
I think we are heading headlong into worst case scenario territory.
And I think we’re going to see a lot of terrible effects by 2050 if not earlier.
I feel that places like the Marshall Islands will be uninhabitable by 2050.
I feel we’ll see wars break out in developed nations over water rights by 2100.
The world is on fire and those with the power to enact change are unable or unwilling to do so.
And with the rise of the far right all over the world it’s only going to get worse.
The world will be unrecognizable in 2100 to the people alive today provided we live that long.
I still hold onto some hope that we may be able to pull off a turn around and actually save humanity. But the longer everything goes on the more that hope feels like a delusional fantasy.
Hug your loved ones, try to push for a better world, be kind to others, and enjoy the time we have. For tomorrow is not guaranteed, but the least you can do is allow love to enter your heart.
I do what I can to prevent the worst case scenario, but when anyone asks how I think this is going to go, I always answer “I objectively think we are all going to burn and die, but I’m not going down without a fight.” That’s all it is. I don’t think we are going to save the world, but I want to go down swinging.
I want to be able to say I’m going down swinging, but at this point I have no idea how we’re supposed to do that aside from like… Blowing up pipelines or whatever. Having a year’s world of recycling be undone by one minute of a coca cola plant operating normally doesn’t exactly feel like swinging lol.
I don’t think humanity is doomed. What I do see happening is a lot of areas that are landlocked becoming wayyyyyyy too expensive for normies to live in. You’ll see the coasts become stupid expensive to live as domestic climate refugees roll in. You’ll see tensions between locals and newcomers. And you’ll see it on the macroscopic scale with wars and tensions over resources like water rights, jobs, immigration, and racial tensions. You’ll see the rise of idiotic nationalism and people waving their country flag as justification for the “good old days”.
We’ll make it halfway, but we will still see devastating climate events often. Big floods, big drought, big hurricanes, skyrocketing insurance, weird stock issues on certain things like some medications, olive oil, cotton, etc. Humanity will be distracted by some of the dumbest shit imaginable while the grownups (scientists) try to focus on drawing down carbon to stay on target.
Luckily humans are very adaptable. History will judge companies like BP and standard oil harshly though, for basically fucking up the planet for centuries.
Skyrocketing insurance is already on the way. Places that don’t outright lose access to insurers will continue to see massive increases over the next decade. US Insurers will all be following suit soon. Property insurance got killed last year and is already getting hit hard this year.
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2023/07/20/731434.htm
It’s a very bad time to be an insurance company, especially with dead weight like Florida, and parts of Texas (hurricanes + mold/water damage from losing power for a week, lol) that are constantly getting destroyed and rebuilt on the exact same floodplains.
And California. There’s a few reasons why a company as big as State Farm (the largest home insurer in the state) stopped writing new home policies there, largely the natural disaster risk.
https://calmatters.org/housing/2023/05/state-farm-california-insurance/
I agree with everything you’ve said and I know big oil has used the “individual responsibility” as a way of dodging their responsibility.
Big oil has a lot to answer for.
But so do we. In almost every country there’s been a “Green” party and choices for electors to make in regards to what regulation we’ve desired.
And the fact is we all have a lot of answer for.
I think we’ve fucked it. Without some drastic measures being taken we are on track for a minimum of a 2-2.5C rise and that is itself bad but will likely see certain feedback loops (defrosting permafrost, melting deep sea methane deposits, etc) ramp up hard to the point climate change will spiral out of control.
The remnants of human civilisation will be any billionaires with a sufficiently advanced escape plan in place, looking back on a boiling world in their rear view mirrors as they head off to eke out a pitiful existence on a barren rock somewhere out there.
The guards those billionaires hire will be in good shape, especially after they kill the billionaires.
We can always dream, right? But that is about as likely as politicians taking a few million from their main source of income, that being billionaires, and then deciding not to create a new law that would benefit them
Yeah, I doubt industrial society is going to survive for another 100 years. I’d be surprised if things don’t go to shit in the next 20, and that’s not even accounting for some sort of “black swan” event triggered by a feedback loop or something like that, that suddenly kicks off a speedrun to turn Earth into Venus.
We’re fucked, and we’d be fucked even if humanity went carbon negative starting right now. While the human race will likely be fine, this current lifestyle and economic system we’ve got in most of the developed world will go tits up and billions will end up dying, if not from the direct effects of climate change then eg. social instability, war, disease, famine. While we could still make the future slightly less bad for ourselves, it’s simply not profitable and there’s so much inertia in global capitalism that things won’t change without fantastic amounts of violence and social upheaval, and I doubt the next change will be for the better considering how popular far right and conservative parties are in many places around the world right now. They’re gleefully making things worse and then blaming leftists / black people / atheists / science / The Gays / etc
Whatever the worse possible outcome is +15%.
