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I think there’s zero chance he turns out to be a great president, but there’s probably a decent chance he’d turn out to be a mediocre president
The most important thing is that Vance wouldn’t have the hold over the whole party to be able to make them bow to his every whim like Trump does. Yes, they would still try to get project 2025 implemented, but they’d be less likely to be able to keep enough of their party in line to do it.