Pretty sure climate change is the answer.
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That’s a blood statement to assume they’d be able to keep guard on it from people that would be literally dying of thirst.
Do you think they won’t protect something that will become a national security? Look at what they do with oil and “national security”.
There’s a huge difference between oil and water when water reserves need defense, the latter of which rendering the former a non-issue.
Water wars will make oil wars look like kindergarteners playing in a sandbox.